On Thursday, local time, with the soaring yield of 10-year US bonds and the "assistance" of the yield of 10-year British bonds, the risk appetite of market investors continued to be suppressed. The three major indexes of US stocks recorded a three-day losing streak. After the S&P 500 index, the Dow also fell below the 50-year moving average, which is usually regarded as a signal of a short-term downward trend.
It should be noted that the American Association of Individual Investors released the latest market sentiment survey report on Thursday, and the bullish enthusiasm of American retail investors in the next six months has plummeted, directly from 44.7% to 35.9%, breaking the state of being better than the historical average in the past 10 weeks. It is enough to show that current investors are not optimistic about the future trend of the market.
The relatively vague monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve has played a great role. According to the latest calendar of the Federal Reserve in official website, Powell will deliver a speech at the annual meeting of Jackson Hole Central Bank on August 25th, local time. If you have memories, you should remember last year’s "nine minutes of darkness". Powell’s speech directly caused the S&P 500 index to plummet by 3%, and then it went from 4,200 to below 3,500 in the next two months.
The market may be worried that Powell’s speech this year may still cause market turmoil before inflation is completely tamed, and monetary policy may continue to be tightened during the year. At present, according to the observation tool of CME Federal Reserve, the probability of raising interest rates again at the end of the year has risen to over 30%, while the hope of lowering interest rates is slim, which was originally the biggest catalyst in the market.
In other important news, on Thursday (August 17th), local time, the latest report released by market research company Counterpoint Research showed that global smartphone shipments will drop by 6% to 1.15 billion units this year. If it is finally true, it will be the lowest level in ten years.
North America is still the main drag on the global recovery, and the disappointing performance in the first half of the year may bring the year-on-year decline of shipments in this region to double digits. However, the high-end market still maintains some flexibility. The report pointed out that Apple will therefore be in a favorable position, and the company will usher in an important product upgrade in the second half of this year, which may make it perform strongly before the end of this year.
In addition, on Thursday night, Beijing time, Musk, the world’s richest man, announced his arrival in Japan on the social media platform, but did not disclose the itinerary. A sudden visit to Japan has caused a lot of discussion in the market. The important daily activities of his social media platform X come from Japan, with a population of only one-third of that of the United States, but the daily activities are comparable to those of the United States.
Musk’s team is still frantically seizing the satellite Internet business in low-earth orbit. Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada has previously confirmed that the Japanese Self-Defense Force has started testing this equipment since March this year.
It is worth mentioning that on the occasion of Musk’s visit to Japan, when Tesla’s redesigned Model 3 was exposed to mass production, did this trip take a fancy to the potential of the Japanese electric vehicle market? The share of electric vehicles in the Japanese market has just exceeded 2%, and the best-selling Mini-EV is Nissan SAKURA, which sold 33,000 vehicles in the whole fiscal year of 2022. Tesla and () are regarded as luxury brands.
[overnight U.S. stocks]
Among the large-scale Chinese stocks, Alibaba rose 1.78%, Baidu fell 0.54%, Netease fell 0.09%, Tencent Music rose 5.78%, and Pinduoduo rose 0.81%.
Among the large US technology stocks, Apple fell 1.46%, Amazon fell 0.81%, Google A rose 0.95% and Netflix fell 3.00%.
[global index]
In the European stock market, the FTSE 100 index in Britain fell slightly by 0.63% to 7310 points. The French CAC40 index fell slightly by 0.94% to 7192 points. Germany DAX index fell slightly by 0.71% to 15,677 points.
[global goods]
The main contract of WTI crude oil closed at $80.16 per barrel, up 0.98%; The main contract of Brent crude oil closed at $83.90 per barrel, up 0.54%; The main contract of crude oil in the previous period closed at 639.00 yuan per barrel overnight, down 0.08%.
Overnight, the Shanghai gold main contract closed down 0.30% to 455.42 yuan per gram; The main contract of Shanghai Bank closed down 0.02% to 5627.00 yuan per kilogram.
[overnight news]
Powell will deliver a speech at Jackson Hole’s annual meeting next week.
The Federal Reserve also quietly updated official website’s calendar after the close, showing that Powell will deliver the annual meeting speech of Jackson Hole at 10: 05 local time on August 25th. Investors should still remember clearly that on August 26th last year, with Powell’s famous "9-minute speech", not only did the S&P 500 index drop by 3% that day, but in the next two months, it even fell from 4,200 to 3,500.
US retail investors’ bullish enthusiasm plummeted
The American Association of Individual Investors also released the latest market sentiment survey report on Thursday. The bullish enthusiasm of American retail investors in the next six months has "dived down", directly dropping from 44.7% to 35.9%, breaking the state of being better than the historical average in the past 10 weeks.
Fed officials are increasingly wary of the stock market’s rise.
According to the latest minutes of the Fed meeting, Fed staff pointed out at the FOMC policy meeting in July that stock prices generally rose, corporate bond spreads narrowed, asset valuation pressure was "significant", and the risk assessment in May was "moderate"; Also named residential and commercial real estate prices, calling them "relatively high in terms of fundamentals".
Research report: global mobile phone shipments may fall to a 10-year low, and Apple is expected to go against the trend.
The latest report released by Counterpoint Research, a market research company, shows that global smartphone shipments are expected to hit the worst year in a decade in 2023. Despite the overall decline in smartphone shipments, the high-end market still maintains a certain degree of flexibility. The report pointed out that Apple will therefore be in a favorable position, and the company will usher in an important product upgrade in the second half of this year, which may make it perform strongly before the end of this year.
After energy and food, the signs of sticky inflation in the United States reappear, and the price of used cars rose for the first time in four months.
According to statistics, the wholesale data of used cars in the first half of August in the United States rose for the first time in four months, and the market is worried. This is another sign that inflation may be stuck for a long time after the rebound of energy and food prices.
The global bond market selling added fuel to the fire, and the demand for Japanese bond auctions was the worst since 1987.
The auction results of 20-year Japanese bonds on Thursday may show that investors are increasingly betting that the Bank of Japan will soon relax the easing policy YCC to control the yield curve. As the global sovereign bond yield has reached a 15-year high, the rising Japanese bond yield threatens global bonds.
[company news]
Tesla’s modified Model 3 was exposed to lower bicycle costs or add a "price war" card.
Tesla’s revised Model 3 may start mass production in Shanghai as early as next month. This electric car faucet is in the final stage of the production of the demonstration car, and the vehicle will be transported to the Tesla exhibition hall later this month. Large-scale production will follow closely, starting in September at the earliest. These people familiar with the matter added that Tesla will also increase production during the National Day holiday.
One of the people familiar with the matter said that the revised Model 3 has been changed in terms of design and interior parts, making it more fashionable. He added that in the case of full production, its cost will be lower than the current version of Model 3, or as low as 200,000 yuan.
Musk suddenly announced his arrival in Japan. What is he going to do?
On Thursday night, Beijing time, Musk, the world’s richest man, announced on his social media platform X that he had arrived in Japan. In view of his extreme love of showing himself on the Internet, this totally unexpected trip triggered a hot discussion among netizens: What is he doing in Japan?
The important daily activities of Musk’s social media platform X come from Japan, with a population of only one-third of that of the United States, but the daily activities are comparable to those of the United States. Musk’s team is still frantically seizing the satellite Internet business in low-earth orbit. Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada has previously confirmed that the Japanese Self-Defense Force has started testing this equipment since March this year.
Mardner: The latest version of COVID-19 vaccine can produce a strong response to EG.5 mutant.
Mardner disclosed on Thursday that preliminary clinical trial data confirmed that the company’s COVID-19 vaccine updated in autumn and winter this year showed a strong immune response against the latest dominant mutant strain EG.5 Mardner’s vaccine was developed for XBB.1.5 mutant, which belongs to Omicron mutant family with EG.5. The latest version of the vaccine is expected to be supplied for autumn vaccination in the next few weeks, and is subject to the approval of relevant departments.
[AI dynamic]
Google’s Gemini, the "most powerful model of mankind", will be released in autumn.
The media broke the news that Google’s "brand-new killer" Gemini combines the capabilities of GPT-4, Midjourney and Stable Diffusion, and can also provide analysis charts, create graphics with text descriptions, and use text or voice command control software.
AI enters the consulting circle McKinsey launches the first AI chat application Lilli.
McKinsey, the world’s largest consulting firm, launched Lilli, the first AI chat application, for consulting project assistance. Lilli has been tested in the company for two months, and it is reported that the effect is good, which can shorten the task that originally took several weeks to several hours.
[financial calendar]
