Abstract: Due to the confrontation and conflict between great powers, the protracted Ukrainian crisis and the persistent and uncontrollable proliferation effect of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the global geopolitical pattern is in crisis. In the next few years, the confrontation and disputes between major powers and regional security hotspots in the world strategic pattern will be difficult to cool down, and various geopolitical conflicts will intensify or lead to the rise of global political extremism, and the division of global political thoughts may break out again. The tense geopolitical situation and the danger of military conflict that may continue to expand are making global geopolitical conflicts and confrontations structured, integrated and long-term.
Keywords: geopolitics, world politics, global governance
【 Chinese Library Classification Number 】 D81 【 Document Identification Code 】 a
From the end of the Cold War to today, world politics is undergoing a substantial reversal, and new structural confrontations and conflicts are emerging in the global geopolitical pattern. The fundamental reason is the continuous agitation of the world’s unprecedented great changes in a hundred years. With the rise of emerging market countries and developing countries represented by China, the global power structure has shown a historical trend of "rising eastward and falling westward". Although the "centralism" of global wealth, power and technology has declined since the era of great navigation and the first industrial revolution, the global power distribution is still in the transition period of "strong in the west and weak in the east". At present, due to the tense geopolitical situation, the prolonged crisis in Ukraine, and the persistent and uncontrollable proliferation effect of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the global geopolitical pattern is in crisis. The changes of the world, times and history are unfolding in an unprecedented way, and human society is facing unprecedented challenges.
Geopolitical conflicts tend to be structured, integrated and prolonged.
With the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the end of the Cold War, the sharp ideological opposition and geopolitical life-and-death contest between the East and the West collapsed, and the 44-year-old Cold War camp opposition and geopolitical division ended. In the post-cold war era, economic globalization has swept the world, and cooperation has become the basic element that dominates the relations between countries. Countries are opening up to each other, the links between countries are getting closer and closer, the economic and trade relations and market ties are deepening, the competition and conflicts in the security field between major countries are relatively weakened, and the geostrategic competition and confrontation that are lingering in the traditional sense of big country relations are easing. However, the essence of world politics is the endless competition of power, interests and wealth among countries, and the return of world politics to the stereotype of power politics in the United States and the West has become a structural feature that is difficult to change in the short to medium term. The outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis and the strategy of competition, conflict and cooperation implemented by some countries are bringing the great power confrontation back to the world political arena. The great power competition and the danger of military conflict that may continue to expand are making the global geopolitical conflict and confrontation structured, integrated and long-term.
China is firmly opposed to the war between countries, and strives to promote "persuading peace and promoting talks" with the international community. After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, some western countries, fearful of Russia’s strategic and tactical nuclear forces, chose not to send troops directly to intervene in the Ukrainian crisis, but to provide the Ukrainian government and army with funds, weapons, ammunition and intelligence support by imposing comprehensive sanctions on Russia and gradually reducing or even stopping the import of Russian oil and gas, so as to strengthen the war determination and military strike capability of the Ukrainian government, army and people against Russia. Against the background of the deepening political opposition among all parties, the Ukrainian crisis has fallen into a long-term dilemma. Once the Ukrainian crisis is prolonged, the possibility of direct confrontation between NATO and Russia cannot be ruled out, let alone the possibility of triggering a local nuclear war. Today, all parties to the Ukrainian crisis have fallen into the trap of "political correctness", which is precisely the root cause of the geopolitical deterioration in Europe. Even most European countries believe that it is Europe’s unprincipled acceptance of "defeatism" to persuade peace and promote talks or admit Russia’s occupation of four eastern Ukrainian States and southern Crimea. ②
Although it is difficult to see the prospect of a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis in the short to medium term, the Asia-Pacific region has become the focus of global geostrategic competition. Japan, India, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and other countries regard assisting and supporting America’s Indo-Pacific strategy as the latest choice of their own security strategy. The alliance-partner system is developing a more clear trend of grouping. While strengthening bilateral alliance, the United States has built a trilateral security partnership between the United States, Britain and Australia, upgraded the quadrilateral security mechanism of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, promoted the functional transformation of the "Five Eyes Alliance" and the Asia-Pacific orientation of NATO forces, and shaped a multi-layered and networked security cooperation framework. Its purpose is to speed up the implementation of the Indo-Pacific strategy, upgrade the "quadrilateral mechanism" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, and strengthen the military deployment in East Asia. The signing of the "Ocuss" agreement between the United States, Britain and Australia reflects the dangerous trend of the United States supporting India-Pacific allies in nuclear proliferation. ③ Second, the high-profile policy of diplomatic, political and military interventionism has increased the risk of military friction. The third is to regard the Asia-Pacific as the focus of American diplomacy. The most challenging new change in regional security in East Asia is Japan. In recent years, Japan’s security strategy has undergone an obvious qualitative change, and "balancing China" is the central goal and means of national security strategy. ④
As the top two economies in the world, the spillover geopolitical and geo-economic effects of changes in Sino-US relations are constantly emerging. China adheres to the concept of a community of human destiny, resolutely opposes the division of the Cold War, and strives to maintain cooperation, openness and balance between the East and the West. However, in the context of structural disputes, competition and conflicts that are difficult to alleviate, the possibility of camp confrontation caused by conflicts between major powers cannot be ruled out in the future. Science and technology war, trade war, economic war, media war, public opinion war, network war, information war and ideological war are all deepening. Whether the United States can treat and handle the US-China relationship objectively and rationally is very important for the two peoples and the peace and development of the world to assume the due responsibility of a big country and give full play to the due wisdom of a big country. Sino-US relations have a profound impact on the world political and economic structure, and there are more and more voices from American academic circles and the media asking Biden’s government to handle US-China relations relatively rationally.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict may lead to the rise of new extremism in the world.
On October 7, 2023, local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) announced its military action against Israel, code-named "Al-Aqsa Flood", and fired at least 5,000 rockets into Israel. Israel immediately declared a state of war and launched an operation codenamed "Iron Sword" against the Hamas target in Gaza. On October 28th, 2023, the Israeli army officially entered Gaza. This is after the Yom Kippur War in 1973. After a lapse of 50 years, Israel and Hamas fought again in an all-round way, and the religious and ethnic struggle between Jews and Muslims in the Middle East, which lasted for nearly a thousand years, broke out again.
As Israel’s neighbors, Egypt and Jordan, worried about being implicated in the conflict, strongly opposed the expansion of the war and explicitly refused to accept Palestinian refugees from Gaza. Saudi Arabia strives to prevent the situation in Gaza from escalating at the regional and international levels. Turkey has been seeking to play a greater role in the Middle East, supporting Pakistan after the outbreak of this round of conflict, hoping to further close relations with Arab countries and other Islamic countries and expand its international influence. Iran’s tough stance once attracted more attention internationally, but this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has further brought Iran closer to Arab countries, and Iranian President Leahy was invited to participate in the Arab — The joint special summit of Islamic leaders became the first Iranian president to visit Saudi Arabia in more than a decade. However, since December 2023, Iran’s policy has tended to balance Palestine and Israel. In the short term, it is unlikely that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will escalate into a multinational war in the Middle East. However, if Palestine and Israel want to achieve a cease-fire as soon as possible, restart peace talks and get out of the vicious circle where the conflict cannot be suppressed, they still face the strong policy of the Israeli Netanyahu government trying to completely crush the Hamas organization.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has lasted for three months, and its strong inflammatory spillover effects, which triggered people’s emotional confrontation, interfered with and undermined shipping and energy security in the Middle East, have been constantly emerging. The sharp opposition between Israel and Palestine, anti-Jews and anti-Muslims caused by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the world is causing new political turmoil in the world and domestic politics. At the same time, the harassment and attacks by extremist organizations in the Middle East, such as Houthi armed forces, on ships operating in the Red Sea region, and the strengthening of military deployment by the United States and Israel in the Red Sea have had a major impact. As of December 18, 2023, the world’s major shipping and oil companies have announced the suspension of shipping in the Red Sea. This will have a great impact on global energy supply and cargo transportation.
The internal tears in European countries have intensified and the opposition has escalated, threatening social stability. From October 7, 2023, when a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out to the end of October, there were 584 recorded "anti-Semitic" acts in France. On October 20, 2023, the London police said that in the previous two weeks, the number of "anti-Semitic" hate crimes surged by 1353% year-on-year, and hate crimes against Muslims increased by 140% year-on-year. At the end of November, 2023, German intelligence agencies warned that the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict aggravated the risk of attacks by radical Islamists in Germany. Spanish Interior Minister Malaska warned that under the delicate international situation, the situation in the Middle East may aggravate tension, polarization and terrorism. On December 5, 2023, Ylva Johansson, the member in charge of internal affairs of the European Commission, warned that with the intensification of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, EU countries would face "great risk of terrorist attacks" during the coming Christmas. The tension in Europe is largely due to the condemnation of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) by the leaders of European countries such as Britain and Germany and their support for Israel.
In London, England, Lisbon, Portugal, Amsterdam, the Netherlands and Warsaw, Poland, there have been large-scale rallies in support of Palestine. Within the EU leadership and among EU countries, there are also obvious differences on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, which even makes it difficult for the EU to adopt a unified position and effectively exert its diplomatic influence. For example, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, visited Israel after the conflict broke out and expressed his stance, which led to many opposition voices. Irish Prime Minister Leo Valadeka publicly stated that Ursula von der Leyen’s remarks "lacked balance" and "did not represent Ireland’s position". French President Macron warned that the conflict in Gaza could become a "divisive factor" in France if the situation is not properly handled. Chirt Wilders, a far-right populist in the Netherlands, unexpectedly won the election and became the next Dutch Prime Minister. After he made many remarks about "going to Islam", the new government is likely to go to extremism under Wilders’ leadership. ⑥ In addition, the new Argentine President Javier Millai is a far-right figure. He has repeatedly expressed his support for Israel, a Middle East country, and said that one of his first actions after taking office was to reverse Argentina’s balanced foreign policy toward Israel and Palestine for decades. ⑦
Since the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, "anti-Semitic" incidents in American society have surged. According to the American Muslim civil rights organization "America — According to the statistics of the Islamic Relations Committee, from October 7 to 24, 2023, the organization recorded 774 cases of hate words and deeds against American Muslims, more than three times that of the same period in 2022. During the same period, the American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee recorded 100 hate incidents against Arabs, including verbal attacks, threats, intimidation and violent attacks. Hate words and deeds against Palestinians are particularly serious. During the same period, the Palestinian Law Association recorded more than 400 cases of seeking help, including many students who were threatened by violence and anti-Palestinian speech. ⑧
With the increasingly obvious polarization of public opinion, American universities are becoming the "second battlefield" of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Harvard University, Yale University, Stanford University, Columbia University and the University of Pennsylvania have successively become the focus of protests, supporting the confrontation between the Palestinian and Israeli student groups and even violent clashes. Columbia University was once closed. The "Harvard Palestinian Solidarity Organization", composed of more than 30 students from Harvard University, issued a statement that after decades of occupation of the Gaza Strip, "the Israeli regime should take full responsibility for all the ongoing violence". The remarks and expressions of these American students have been strongly criticized by the US Congress. Presidents of Harvard University, University of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts Institute of Technology were summoned to congressional hearings and forced to accept the political principle that "anti-Semitism" is not "freedom of speech". The polarization of positions on American university campuses is just a microcosm of social differences in the United States, reflecting the strong antagonistic spillover effect of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which affects Jewish, Arab and Muslim groups in American society. If Israel takes further tough military action in Gaza and causes more Palestinian casualties, the emotional and antagonistic impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on the stability and progress of global political thoughts will continue to ferment.
Dealing with the tension of geopolitical and geo-economic double division
Geo-economic competition in supply chain remodeling, digital economy development and regional infrastructure construction is becoming increasingly fierce. The United States has successively put forward a series of regional development strategies such as "Prospering Africa" initiative, "Blue Dot Network" plan and "American Partnership Network", and at the same time has successively put forward a series of economic and political alliances in the Indo-Pacific region in an attempt to reshape the global industrial chain, such as the "Economic Prosperity Network Plan" of the United States, Japan, Australia, India, South Korea and Vietnam, the investment and financing cooperation relationship of the United States and Japan, and the "quadrilateral mechanism" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia. In May 2022, the United States announced the launch of the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" and declared that this framework "will set new rules for the world economy in the 21st century", hoping to achieve the goals of infrastructure cooperation and "supply chain resilience". Under this framework, the United States will strengthen cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region in the fields of energy development, infrastructure construction and digital economy, and provide the host country with an alternative plan of "One Belt, One Road". Pet-name ruby In June 2022, the United States took the lead and joined hands with the Group of Seven (G7) to jointly announce the launch of the Global Infrastructure and Investment Partnership Program. In September 2023,At the G20 Summit held in New Delhi, India, the United States signed a memorandum of understanding with the European Union, India and Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries, announcing that it would build "India — Middle East — "European Economic Corridor" is a "Belt and Road Initiative" that has been going on for ten years in China and has made great contributions to world development. ⑩
At the same time, some countries have used their advantages and influence in the high-tech field to restrict and attack other countries’ scientific and technological enterprises and institutions in various forms, restrict normal cultural, social, educational and media exchanges, and comprehensively interrogate scholars involved in scientific and technological exchanges. Some international alliance systems turn sanctions and restrictions in the high-tech field into geo-economic combinations among allies, and abuse export control rules, so as to build a "democratic alliance of science and technology", that is, from two aspects of technology, hardware control and industrial substitution, to "block the neck" of high-tech industries and step up the geo-technological offensive.
In 2023, the United States continued to accelerate the promotion of more allies to weave a closer geo-technological "silicon curtain", trying to consolidate its dominant position in high-tech industrial chain, supply chain and value chain with chips, quantum computing and artificial intelligence as the core. According to the characteristics of the semiconductor industry chain, the United States attracts famous manufacturers from Japan, Europe and South Korea to strengthen their investment in high-tech industries in the United States by giving high investment subsidies, and controls and dominates the global industrial chain and supply chain of computer chips and high-end semiconductors through its own re-industrialization process. Semiconductor companies investing in the United States are severely restricted by the US Department of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance in their investment and sales in China. It will substantially affect the high-tech trade and investment cooperation between China and European countries, Japanese, Korean and Taiwan, China.
Geopolitical competition has spread to normal trade, scientific and technological exchanges and cooperation in East Asia and across Asia and Europe. Various "small multilaterals" are not only the continuation of the inherent logic of the hegemonic system, but also the exclusive "internalization" of security and economic interests within the camp by relying on the "multi-sides" of the alliance system. Political and economic tensions in the Asia-Pacific region and across regions continue. In recent years, Biden’s administration has not only tried its best to establish a new trilateral security cooperation mechanism among the United States, Japan and South Korea, but the US military and think tank circles even began to discuss the establishment of an Asian version of NATO several years ago, transforming the US-led bilateral military alliance into a multilateral military alliance against China. Some Korean scholars have clearly pointed out that bringing camp confrontation back to Asia will definitely sacrifice the hard-won peace and prosperity in Asia for decades. ⑪
General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out in the Party’s Report to the 20th CPC National Congress: "On the one hand, the historical trend of peace, development, cooperation and win-win is unstoppable, and the aspirations of the people and the general trend determine that the future of mankind will be bright after all. On the other hand, the hegemonic bullying behaviors, such as bullying, usurpation and zero-sum game, are extremely harmful, and the peace deficit, development deficit, security deficit and governance deficit are aggravated, and human society is facing unprecedented challenges. The world once again stands at the crossroads of history, and where to go depends on the choices of people of all countries. " Faced with the tense geopolitical situation, the prolonged Ukrainian crisis, the persistent and uncontrollable proliferation effect of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the slow growth of the world economy, it will be difficult to cool down the confrontation and disputes between major powers and regional security hotspots in the world strategic pattern in the next few years, and the combination of American and Western countries may continue to escalate, and various geopolitical conflicts will intensify or will trigger a further rise in global political extremism. It may even lead to the re-outbreak of the division of global political thoughts because of the differences between sympathy for Jews and sympathy for Palestinians. Recently, the Milai government in Argentina came to power, and the ultra-political conservative forces represented by anti-Muslims in the Netherlands won the election and came to power, which are two typical examples. Confrontation and conflict between big powers, geopolitical tension and even a new period of war, coupled with the global economic downturn, may induce extremist political forces to rise on a global scale.
China, guided by the supreme leader’s diplomatic thought, will be the most constructive and stable force in the process of complicating, sharpening and conflicting the world geopolitical situation in the future. Standing at the height of the development process of human history and with a broad vision of the world, Chairman Supreme Leader has put forward the concept of building a community of human destiny, the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative, etc., contributing China’s wisdom to the progress of human civilization and building a better world, providing China’s solutions, and providing assistance to the vast number of developing countries in exploring the modernization road in line with their national conditions. In the complicated and severe external environment where the world economic recovery is weak and the global inflation level is still high, China’s economy shows great resilience, potential and vitality, and remains the ballast stone and stabilizer of global economic growth. This will not only guide Sino-US relations, politics in the Asia-Pacific region, but also the evolution of the world strategic situation. Zacharia, a famous commentator on CNN in the United States, recently wrote in Foreign Affairs that "the United States should accept China’s reasonable attempt to strengthen its influence to adapt to the growth of its economic strength". ⑫
On November 15th, 2023, the Supreme Leader of president held the first meeting of the US dollar with US President Biden at the Filoli Manor in San Francisco, USA. The two heads of state had a frank and in-depth exchange of views on strategic, overall and directional issues concerning Sino-US relations and major issues concerning world peace and development. The Chairman of the Supreme Leader put forward "jointly and effectively managing differences" and regarded it as one of the five pillars related to the stable development of Sino-US relations. The first meeting between China and the United States in San Francisco showed the positive will of both sides to constructively control differences and played an irreplaceable role in stabilizing Sino-US relations. In recent years, some people in the United States look at China through colored glasses, look at the differences and differences between China and the United States with magnifying glasses, and define Sino-US relations through competition, which is irresponsible to history, people and the world. China is not afraid of any containment and suppression, firmly defends its legitimate interests, devotes itself to controlling differences and sensitive issues in a constructive way, and promotes the construction of stable, healthy and sustainable Sino-US relations.
Faced with the deterioration of the global geopolitical situation, Biden’s government should realize that ensuring the competitive advantage and monopoly interests of a few countries in the American alliance and security partner system while intensifying the factional confrontation will not only undermine the cooperation, tolerance and common development of the global economy, but also further fragment the global governance mechanism and aggravate the tension and confrontation of the regional geopolitical situation. The Chairman of the Supreme Leader pointed out: "As the most important bilateral relationship in the world, Sino-US relations should be considered and planned in the context of the accelerated evolution of the world’s century-old changes, bringing benefits to the two peoples and demonstrating their responsibility for human progress." China and the United States should strengthen cooperation and joint action, and strive to reduce and reduce the strategic risk of continued disorder in the global geopolitical situation.
(The author is the Executive Dean and Professor of School of International Studies, Nanjing University)
[Notes]
① zhufeng: Realism Regression and Sino-US Strategic Game, Asia-Pacific Security and Ocean Research, No.1, 2023.
②Dmytro Kuleba ,There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine: Delusions and Dangers of Defeatist Voices in the West , Foreign Affairs, December 14, 2023.
③Pentagon forges new high-tech agreement with Australia, United Kingdom, aimed at countering China, Associated Press , December 2, 2023.
④ zhufeng: Geostrategy and Great Power Relations: A Re-analysis of the Basic Trend of Sino-Japanese Relations, Journal of Japan, No.1, 2022.
⑤Jenni Reid,Oil major BP becomes latest to pause Red Sea shipments, with global supply chain in focus, CNBC News, DEC 18, 2023.
⑥Geert Wilders: the anti-Islam, anti-EU populist who could be next Dutch PM, Reuters, November 23, 2023.
⑦Javier Milei: Argentina’s pro-Israel and far-right presidential front-runner, Middle East Eye, August 18, 2023.
⑧US university presidents face firestorm over ‘ evasive’ answers on antisemitism, The Guardian, December 7, 2023.
⑨In Asia, President Biden and a Dozen Indo-Pacific Partners Launch the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, The White House, May 23, 2022.
⑩Memorandum of Understanding on the Principles of an India-Middle East-European Economic Corridor, The White House, September 9, 2023.
⑪Wang Son-taek ,Seven problems with the Asian version of NATO, Korea Herald, Dec. 14, 2023.
⑫Fareed Zakaria, Self-Doubting Superpower: America Shouldn’t Give Up the World It Made, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2024.
Editor-in-Chief/Editor-in-Chief Zhao Chengcenmei/Li Xiangfeng
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