From glory to loneliness, from pride to disappointment, it doesn’t take an era at all, a few years is enough. Just like the automotive industry in recent years, it is difficult for anyone at the card table to "win in a breeze".
On July 25, Dongfeng Group shares (HK: 00489) set a 52-week intraday low of HK $2.19/share. As the chairperson of the group, Yang Qing, an old Dongfeng man who is responsible for the group’s performance and market performance, should be under a lot of pressure.
Its shares fell more than 40 per cent in the first half of the year, while the Hang Seng index closed up nearly 4 per cent over the same period, as the group’s chill in capital markets reflected weakness in sales fundamentals that underpin Dongfeng.
Longitudinal point of view, in the first half of this year, the cumulative sales of Dongfeng Group shares increased by 2.2% year-on-year, stopping at one million vehicles for the second consecutive year; recall the same period in 2017/2018, half a year to reach 1.50 million vehicles, the gap is not big.
1 Recognize the reality
In 2024, Dongfeng Group’s share sales target is 2.70 million vehicles, which is the first time in five years that the group has adjusted the annual target to below 3 million vehicles.
But unfortunately, in the three years from 2020 to 2022, the group’s sales target has been higher and higher, but the actual sales achieved have been less and less. Looking at the data in recent years, Dongfeng Group shares reveal a sense of helplessness and unwillingness that "my life is up to me" but cannot be fought.
In 2023, Dongfeng Group’s shares contracted for the first time, lowering the target to 3 million vehicles, but finally reached 2.0882 million vehicles, with a completion rate of less than 70% for the whole year. In 2024, Dongfeng Group shares, which recognized the reality, lowered their expectations again, and this time the annual target was only 2.70 million vehicles.
90.8%, 84.3%, 71.0%, and 69.6% are the target completion rates of Dongfeng Group from 2020 to 2023. The decreasing sales volume and completion rate year by year are like a basin of cold water, which ruthlessly wakes up this old automobile central enterprise with a glorious history.
From Shiyan in northwestern Hubei to Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province, Dongfeng Motor is facing another critical moment.
2 "days" fade away
The most sobering thing for Dongfeng Group’s shares should be the "not what it used to be" of its two major Japanese joint ventures.
During its heyday (about the past 10 years), the two Japanese joint ventures contributed more than 70% of the group’s sales, making them a veritable sales pillar and profit cow.
In the first half of 2018, Dongfeng Nissan (including Venutian and Infiniti) sold 620,000 vehicles, and now only 330,000 vehicles; compared with the monthly average sales may be more impactful. In five years, its monthly average sales have plummeted from 100,000 vehicles to 50,000 vehicles, reaching the level of "halving".
Weak sales will inevitably be transmitted to the production side, inhibiting the release of production capacity.
According to public information, Dongfeng Nissan’s Guangzhou, Xiangyang, Zhengzhou, Dalian, Changzhou and Wuhan production bases reached 1.60 million vehicles, while last year’s capacity utilization rate was less than 50%. As of the first half of this year, its capacity utilization rate was only 20.6%.
Not long ago, it was reported that Dongfeng Nissan’s Wuhan Yunfeng factory would be used to produce Lantu car soulmates.
Although it is the height of summer, it feels chilling. The era of Japanese brands in full swing has come to an end. The decision to introduce three-cylinder engines may be the historic beginning of Dongfeng Nissan’s decline.
In the face of the strong counterattack of Chinese brands, the "Huohuo Sickle" of the price war, and Dongfeng Nissan, which is lagging behind in the transformation of new energy, have lost their "combat power" and have become the first Japanese brands to bear the brunt.
It is worth mentioning that on June 16, Dongfeng Nissan ushered in 16 million vehicle production and sales milestones on its 21st birthday. General Manager of Dongfeng Nissan, Sekiguchi, released the "Dongfeng Nissan New Struggle · 100 Action Plan". He called on all Dongfeng Nissan employees to strengthen their confidence, anchor their goals, fight with all their fun, and win with all their fun, and jointly open a "new era of enjoyment" for Dongfeng Nissan.
Dongfeng Nissan plans to launch 7 new new energy products by the end of 2026, and the R & D investment will exceed 10 billion yuan in the next three years. The medium and long-term goal is to increase the size of the R & D team to more than 4,000 people…
However, can the grand plan bring Dongfeng Nissan back to the glory of the fuel age?
Compared with Dongfeng Nissan’s cumulative negative sales performance, Dongfeng Honda sold 237,900 vehicles in the first half of this year, up 4.79% year-on-year, outperforming the group’s growth rate. However, as mentioned above, its current sales scale is also facing a serious contraction.
Under the rolling tide of new energy and intelligent transformation, Dongfeng Honda’s meritorious models CR-V and CR-V, even if the price is significantly reduced, it is difficult to return to the previous market position. BYD, Geely Automobile, and Chery’s competing models are on the rise.
In the face of the overall monthly sales of about 30,000 vehicles, the annual sales target of "Dongfeng Honda’s impact on 1 million vehicles" may never be mentioned again.
According to Honda China’s latest news, it will implement capacity optimization in China to accelerate electrification transformation. Among them, Dongfeng Honda plans to suspend production of the second production line with an annual capacity of 240,000 vehicles in November 2024; its new electric factory under construction will be put into operation in September this year, and plans to launch more than 10 pure electric models by 2030.
It is worth mentioning that on July 16, Dongfeng Honda also just celebrated its 21st birthday, only a month away from Dongfeng Nissan.
The transformation is lagging behind, sales are shrinking, overcapacity, and layoffs are causing Japanese brands to face unprecedented challenges.
3 "Dharma" is difficult to apply
In the first half of this year, Shenlong Automobile sold a total of 37,700 vehicles, with an average monthly sales of more than 6,000 vehicles, and the performance was very "stable". It’s just that the market presence is minimal.
In 2022, the monthly sales volume of this French joint venture company can still exceed 10,000 vehicles, but since 2023, it has basically missed 10,000 vehicles, not to mention the easy monthly sales of 50,000 vehicles at its peak.
A year later, he went to the FAW Group to follow the old leader, but the situation of Shenlong Automobile was far from optimistic. In the current extremely rolled-in car market, it was difficult to survive with a sales volume of several thousand vehicles; especially for Shenlong Automobile, new brands and new products emerged one after another.
The current Shenlong Automobile has mainly focused on the user brand "bosom friend" and implemented the "Five Hearts Guardian Action 2.0", including the recent launch of the "Longjing Plan" with JD.com.
For product-level innovation or new actions, Shenlong Automobile has little voice. In the first half of this year, Shenlong Automobile mainly launched the new 408 model of Dongfeng Peugeot, and Dongfeng Citroen 2024 Versailles C5 X & a new version of Travel Extraordinary, nothing more.
If the Japanese joint venture is lagging behind in the new energy track, then Shenlong Automobile can be considered a laggard. It is understood that Shenlong Automobile’s first new energy model will not be officially put into production until 2025.
On July 15, Shenlong Automobile made adjustments to its management. Chen Bin, an "old Dongfeng man", was transferred to FAW and no longer held the position of general manager of the company; Song Hanming was recommended to serve as general manager. Chen Bin was also ordered to take over at the lowest point of Shenlong Automobile and start a disaster. However, the current Shenlong Automobile still makes everyone feel that the stamina is insufficient.
The sales target of 100,000 cars this year may be difficult to achieve.
4 "Self" is constantly strong
Perhaps realizing the "powerlessness" of the joint venture sector, Dongfeng Group shares have poured more effort into their own business.
Dongfeng Yipai, Dongfeng Nano, Dongfeng Fengshen, the three major brands have joined forces to improve the production and sales performance of Dongfeng passenger cars.
Among them, Dongfeng Yipai, which is the core of Dongfeng Motor’s strategic transformation, has launched two models in the first half of this year, namely eπ 007 and eπ 008. It is understood that the second factory in Wuhan mainly produces Dongfeng Yipai. The output of eπ 007 will stabilize at around 3,000 units in July, and will increase to 5,000 units in August as orders grow. The eπ 008, which was officially launched and delivered in June, is also climbing production. The current monthly output has increased to about 5,000 units.
According to the plan, in the next three years, Yipai, Fengshen and Nano will launch 11 new products; and by 2025, the three major product series of the "Dongfeng" brand will break through 700,000 new energy vehicles.
700,000, which is equivalent to the sales of Dongfeng Nissan and Dongfeng Honda last year. Is this going to be "independent and joint venture"?
The answer lies in 2025.
After Dreamer and Chaser, the fourth model of Lantu Automobile will also be launched this year.
In 2023, Lantu Automobile successfully achieved its annual sales target of 50,000 vehicles; in 2024, its sales target is the same as Shenlong Automobile, and it is also 100,000 vehicles. With the addition of new models of Huawei Empower, this goal is not far away.
5 Views of AutosKline
The failure of the joint venture brand in the Chinese market is not the only one affected by Dongfeng Group. However, it has two major Japanese automakers and a legal system. Dongfeng Motor Group has been hit more strongly, which also led to its first net profit loss in 2023.
Dongfeng Motor Group’s "bug-catching" operation has also continued. Even at the DONGFENG MOTOR CORPORATION’s mid-year 2024 work conference on July 16, Yang Qing, chairperson and party secretary of the company, emphasized that in the second half of the year, the company must insist on the central inspection and rectification, and put it in a prominent position.
As the saying goes, everything is man-made, and only when people are correct can they do things correctly.
Dongfeng Automobile Group, a central automobile enterprise that often talks about "family and country feelings" and "industry serving the country", carries a heavier mission.
Now that the glory of the joint venture era is in the past, there is no need to miss it. The automotive industry is a marathon, self-improvement, and there are still opportunities in the second half. The national team should be very excited.
The old man is on the verge of a thousand miles. If you don’t fight at this time, when will you wait?!
